Recorded crime (plus ASBs) has rise 27% . . . over 5 months

How many months makes a trend?

All Recorded Crime in England and Wales

I was very wary at the start to draw hasty conclusions, but with 5 months of totalled data, we do seem to have something of a trend.

There is still much to learn though. What I don’t know for example;

Is there a seasonal/temperature variation, i.e. more crime in better weather and longer daylight hours?

But that’s just the point – the more data we feed in to the database, the more we can determine relationships and meaning from it.

We have reached these figures in the chart above – see breakdown on our National Picture page – by totalling the data stream for streets by Police Forces from and trust them not to go back and change it.

Initially, we were using neighbourhood crime totals but we had to stop because every so often – in several hundred cases – the police neighbourhood boundaries were redrawn, the neighbourhoods renamed and all the historical crimes were lost !

This way – using street – i.e. boundary free data – we can be sure that the historical data remains cast in stone.

Now back to the main point. My gut feeling is that 5 months isn’t quite enough but 12 months of data would really give us a very clear picture of what’s happening.

Leave a Reply